Thanks man, the exact critique I needed. I try getting to researching this more soon, but as of now I am going to bed.
The best list we actually have is as follows:
Confirmed - Cigarettes and Valentines, Too Much Too Soon
Confirmed but not heard - Drop Out, Walk Away, and I think there was another?
Strong Possibility - Things I Heard Today, Minnesota Girl, What About Today
Weaker Possibility - Shoplifter
Also I think Horseshoes and Handgrenades was actually written circa 2003. I can't remember if they said it was written "For American Idiot" or "Around 2003" but that could be a possibility along with Shoplifter.
Would you say Favorite Son is about George Bush? I've been wondering that
Yeah, definitely. First of all it was on that comp and second there was this whole thing about how he only got into politics and made it up there to make daddy proud.