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The 2012 Presidential Election Thread

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#1
Trotsky

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FFS John, do you know how far away that is? Yes. I make thread anyway. :runaround:

Now is a good time to start speculation about the future of US politics and the next election. This is because Obama has officially announced his re-election campaign, and has done so right on top of a major clash in Congress which could result in a government shutdown, something that last happened back when Bill Clinton was President against an equally hostile Republican House.

So Obama has a chance to raise his popularity up again in this time, depending on if the budget can be settled and how Libya ultimately ends. He also is taking major risks. The Republicans are sticking with the time tested strategy of "Don't just go right, go right off the cliff." so we'll see how their ultra-extreme approach to austerity affects their popularity.

Tim Pawlenty is a Republican frontrunner who has announced his intentions to run. Newt Gingrich, the man who shut the government down in the 90's, is another contender. Romney may run again. Palin, who the hell knows? I tend to agree with Lawrence O'Donnell that she's smart enough not to, as running and losing would end her influence and popularity. Michelle Bachmann, a Republican congresswoman from Farmville, Minnesota (jk, I don't think it's called Farmville), who believes FEMA is ready to herd us all into concentration camps, who thinks swine flu was engineered by Democrats, and thinks there should be a House comittee on finding out which elected officials are "anti-American.", she also thinks she might want to run for President. But don't be scared, that's only scaring all of the Republicans who actually want to win.

And finally...

Posted Image


Yes, this guy, who believes we should directly and openly steal Iraq's oil rather than just covertly exploit it, that we have them at gunpoint so we may as well take it. Also, he's a birther now. For real.

So, I'll give President another chance. Your thoughts?
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#2
November's Storms

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Had a big long fucking post and then my internet switched itself off (again!)

Long story short. Pawlenty is a funny name and I don't like Gingrich. Who are the Greens running?

#3
captain peroxide

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I have a feeling Obama is going to the lesser of n amount of evils.

#4
bollard_11

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Excuse my ignorance, but I have not followed American politics much since Obama got elected. What I want to know, what changes has Obama introduced so far? Have these policies been beneficial to the American public? What changes to the system is he promising in his manifesto for the upcoming election?

#5
GreenRanger

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I'm expecting a long, dirty battle over the next two years that I'm going to be sick of hearing about before the primary election is over. That being said, I just can't give my vote to the party who has purposefully kept the government at a standstill no matter what is placed in front of them. They've just been very loud and obnoxious for the past four years and many of the things they've said or argued just don't make any sense to me. This was not the time to argue over every little thing while our country's problems continued to stack up over one another. While the Democrats may not have all the answers, they sure as hell have less questions. I agree with Alex...I think they're the lesser of two evils in this one unless someone better comes along...which I doubt.

#6
November's Storms

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Excuse my ignorance, but I have not followed American politics much since Obama got elected. What I want to know, what changes has Obama introduced so far? Have these policies been beneficial to the American public? What changes to the system is he promising in his manifesto for the upcoming election?


I'm sure someone else can answer your "what has he done so far" question a lot more extensively. The one big thing for me that he hasn't done is closed Guantanamo Bay as he promised.

#7
Comrade

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*
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Have fun with your future, America. Obama wins and the Republicans just block everything as per last 3 1/2 years. Republicans win and The Most Powerful Nation On Earthô can wave common sense away into the sunset. Talk about a rock and a hard place.
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#8
Vrock09

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I voted and campaigned for Obama in 2008, not sure if I'll campaign, but I'll vote for him, considering who the the prospected candidates are so far. I think President Obama sounds like the best bet at this point in time.

As far as Trump, I dunno, to me he's just doing this for the attention. But he's got his head so far up his own ass, he could easily be a politician. I saw him on Morning Joe this morning, and he mentioned that he was a billionaire 4 times in 15 minutes. What a smuck.

If I could pick.. I would love if Bernie Sanders (Vermont) ran for president, but because Americans fear the word "Independent" or anything that even sounds like the word "socialism" they run, so needless to say my pick for president is out, but a girl can dream :happy:

Have fun with your future, America. Obama wins and the Republicans just block everything as per last 3 1/2 years. Republicans win and The Most Powerful Nation On Earth™ can wave common sense away into the sunset. Talk about a rock and a hard place.



Talk about being fucked... :dry:

#9
November's Storms

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Yeah a lot of Americans have a tragic habit of confusing human rights with socialism.
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#10
Tre's Busted Drumkit

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Back when I was idealistic, I always voted based on my heart. Social issues were the deciding factor, always. Meant I almost always voted for a Democrat.

Now? Well, as far as social issues go, I'm less-demanding in that area. Republicans want to outlaw gay marriage? Fine. If they're actually able to (which I still don't think they ever will be), give my generation 25 years to get to the Supreme Court, and we'll overturn that shit. But if the Republicans have a sensible spending plan that allows us to repay China and maintain our status as a world superpower, then awesome. That's who I'll vote for. I'm not married to any one party; in California, I actually registered Green just for shits. Not sure if I've actually registered here or not yet... :pinch:

Obama, eh, I'm not too sure about. If the Republicans run Sarah Palin or some other Tea Party wacko who appeals only to die-hard ultra-right-wing conservatives (who call themselves "libertarians" then want to regulate the bedroom...bullshit. I'm a libertarian, and libertarians preach minimal government in every aspect of life), then yeah, he'd be my pick again. Hell, Sarah Palin's the only reason I voted for Obama in 2008. I've wanted John McCain to be the President since 2000, and had he made a sensible selection for VP, not some Looney Tunes moose-hunting caricature of a governor from that state we'd give back to Russia if it wasn't for all the oil, he'd have gotten my vote then.

Let me make this clear: I don't think Obama's done a good job with the office. Like, at all. Not only do we still owe China hundreds of billions, but the economic recovery has been slower than planned, the defecit recovery has been slower than planned, his healthcare reform was a misguided attempt to appeal to the lowest common denominator, and he's generally been unable to handle internal or external conflict well. Look at Iraq. Not his fault we're there, I know, but his exit strategy is very similar to Vietnam's. The job's not done; we're just giving up.

If the Republicans run a polarizing Tea Party nutcase (like Gingrich, Palin or...blech...Bachmann--it's Stillwater, MN, by the way, and it's a very nice town), they're sunk. If they run a more moderate candidate like Romney or Pawlenty, I'd probably vote for a Republican in the Presidential election for the first time, and I have a feeling that they'd have a good chance of winning. Trump? Dear God, no. Just no.

(secretly wishing Rudy Giuliani would run again)

And ffs John, the primaries are still almost a year away. :P
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#11
greendaytone

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I enjoy learning about politics through GDC. My outsider, pretty uneducated view is that 'we' should stick with Obama. It seems he is trying to do (mostly) the right things, but is being held back/blocked off at the moment. Maybe more time will allow him to break down these barriers somewhat.

#12
koolkev

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Obama.

#13
bollard_11

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I enjoy learning about politics through GDC. My outsider, pretty uneducated view is that 'we' should stick with Obama. It seems he is trying to do (mostly) the right things, but is being held back/blocked off at the moment. Maybe more time will allow him to break down these barriers somewhat.

I am inclined to agree with you. From the outside looking in, it seems obvious to me that Obama is doing a better job internationally as opposed to Bush. But my question is domestically, has Obama been better?

#14
Tre's Busted Drumkit

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I am inclined to agree with you. From the outside looking in, it seems obvious to me that Obama is doing a better job internationally as opposed to Bush. But my question is domestically, has Obama been better?


That's a subjective question, and I'd bet you'll get almost all "yes" answers on it. From where I sit, it would be hard to be much worse than GW2, but I'm not thrilled with how Obama's done, even before he lost the House.

#15
bollard_11

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That's a subjective question, and I'd bet you'll get almost all "yes" answers on it. From where I sit, it would be hard to be much worse than GW2, but I'm not thrilled with how Obama's done, even before he lost the House.

Yeah agreed.

How has Obama fared in terms of keeping the promises his campaign made? Has he followed through with them, or has he attempted but failed to implement these policies?

Given the state of the World Economy I believe any leader would find difficult to implement any changes until the national debt is recovered. People elect officials and expect a miracle and immediate change. But common sense should show that this is never the case.

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#16
greendaytone

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Bill Hicks for President!

Just been reading about him, and it brings back how America pretty much went through the same mistakes twice with Bush 1 and then 2. In the words the Bush 2 himself said, "fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice.... won't get fooled again!" :lol:

Apologies, back to the future...

#17
lastnightonGDA

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Already!? I feel like it was just yesterday when I was wearing my Obama t shirt all the time. Now, it's buried deep in my closet :unsure:
Um, I can't vote but if I could I would most likely vote for Obama.
Theres my input. I'll post more when the election is ACTUALLY GETTING CLOSE.

#18
greendaytone

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People elect officials and expect a miracle and immediate change. But common sense should show that this is never the case.

This is what i was thinking. There was so much hype around his election, it was almost impossible to live up to that.

An analogy (which could be better) close to home, it's a bit like Green Day getting the kind of acclaim for their album after American Idiot, they were just never really going to hit those heights.

#19
Moffie

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I have a feeling Obama is going to the lesser of n amount of evils.


Agreed. But I would like either him or someone to stand up against the Tea Party Patriots and other conservatives and finally say "Okay, you've had your say but that's all you've done. You've blocked any sort of progress with your hate and complaints and now it's time to shut up, listen to both sides of the story and work with us or just be quiet. For once."

But that would only happen after it rained lollipops and the striped unicorns left us mint chocolates on our pillows after a long day at work.
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#20
Trotsky

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snip


We have a national debt approaching $14 trillion, which I admit is a leviathan problem that must be dealt with sooner or later. But China are only holders of somewhat more than $1 trillion of our bonds. The fact is that most of the debt is the taxpayers' debt. China and the USA have strong economic interdependence. We are their number 1 trading partner, and Japan, which is also in high debt, is second. They cannot make a spontaneous decision to demand repayment without risking major economic strife. Also, China's artificial devaluing of their currency is unsustainable, and sooner or later their impressive surplus will collapse. And further, China still has their own public debt of $400 billion, and that is not counting what they have taken off the books. They introduced a system similar to our federal reserve of having private banks buy up their debt. They are spending, essentially, in the same circular way as we are. To summarize, our debt to China is a problem, but it is not an apocalyptic threat. At worst we risk rising inflation, but inflation has been steadily rising more than half a century and we have dealt with it. I don't think we are going to find ourselves in a situation of hyperinflation, nor do I think China will refuse to buy our bonds. They enjoy the illusion of leverage over us, they are trying to escalate themselves into a superpower, but what we have with China is a rivalry, not a fight. It is not as if it were cold war times and the Soviet Union held our debt, our relationship with China is much more complex and far more interdependent.

Also, let me be clear that I think health care reform possessed numerous flaws, and they need to be fixed sooner than later. One thing that is irrelevant however, that most people were upset about, is the insurance mandate. And it is a little known fact that before the final bill was passed, all provisions for enforcing the mandate were removed from the bill. (This, by the way, was not a demand made by conservatives, but by progressives, and it is thanks to us that happened) So the infamous "mandatory health insurance" is purely symbolic because the government has no legal means of taxing someone for refusing to buy insurance. It was surgically cut from the bill and all that remained of the mandate was its place on paper.

Tort reform should have happened, and we'd be spending significantly less on health care if it did. That is one reason health care is so expensive, because doctors order unnecessary procedures, not to personally profit, but just to cover themselves in the event of a medical malpractice lawsuit. Health care can never be perfect and mistakes will happen, there should be means to separate a doctor who followed procedure and made a mistake from a constantly negligent doctor, who of course should be fired and should be sued.

And the public option should have stayed on the bill, it would have been a deterrent to insurance companies raising premiums to compensate for the health care bill. I blame the failures of the bill on the Democrats alone. Had they had a crystal ball with which to look into the future, and seen not one Republican would cast a vote for it, and seen it would have been used against them regardless, they certainly would have implemented all the serious reforms and not compromised and buckled under the pressure. Chances are, they would have lost the House anyway, but I can almost guarantee the 2010 election results would have been less devastating had many progressives not been so disillusioned with the neutered reform bill that was finally passed.

Despite all these flaws, I do not advocate repealing health reform in any way. First, many of its provisions have already been implemented. It cost money to do so, and it costs money to reverse anything that already costs money. We will only devastate the economy more and raise our debt higher with an outright repeal. Second, the following were accomplished

- The end of "pre-existing conditions"
- Guaranteed coverage when you get sick, rather than being dropped
- The ability to stay on your parents' insurance until age 26

The third one is vastly taken for granted, but I think almost any GDCer here who is an American youth is better off from it, and example of the government's actions directly affecting your life. Before health reform, it was projected that soon people might spend a full third of their income on health insurance. This would have hit college students the hardest, and cause a fall in the amount of students who can afford to get degrees. Young adults have security now. Most college students can not realistically afford health insurance. They had only the options of making sacrifices to their education, or going uninsured, which would ultimately burden taxpayers. That is a provision that has given me personal benefit and something I can say I am much better off for it being passed.

And even if health care reform needed to be radically amended, it is still better it stays in place. Do we really want to give insurance companies back the power to drop people after years of paying their premiums? Do we really want people with pre-existing conditions to be screwed? No amount of corrections to the health care bill can be worth some of those people dying too young, can be worth the increase in those peoples' own debt that would lead back to recession.

To summarize: If conservatives have full power again, everything about the health care bill, good and bad, will vanish. If progressives have full power again, we can fix it, keep what is already good, and cut out what is harmful and replace it with true health care reform America deserves.

How has Obama fared in terms of keeping the promises his campaign made? Has he followed through with them, or has he attempted but failed to implement these policies?


Better than most

http://www.politifac...mises/obameter/

#21
ParadoxAndPlaid

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There is not much I can say this early on,

I'm sincerely worried about Trump running. There are a lot of people who vote without actually knowing anything about their candidates, and many of them would vote for him just because he's familiar. If you've heard the guy talk politics, then you know how unqualified he is to run the country. His background is in business only, and he should just stay there.
Plain and the whole "Tea Party" is joke; they are loud, but they are not even organized enough to hold an effective protest, let alone run a presidential campaign. I honestly feel bad for her if she runs. -She is like those poor, pathetic people on talent shows who's whole family tells them they're great even when they suck.- Who are the republicans even looking at this time? is Trump running Independent or Republican? I heard Mitt Romney and Mike Hukabee are thinking about it again?

I feel like -so far- Obama would still have my vote. I think there was so much hype around him from his supporters early on, that he people expected a lot more than possible from his one term in office. That has been a huge blow to his popularity. As well as factors out of anyones control -oil spills,natural disasters, rebelling countries- that sort of stuff always has a bad affect on a president's popularity, no matter what they do to combat those factors somebody will be unhappy. Not to say that he has not made some mistakes. I think my biggest complaint with Obama so far is that he tends to make comments and get involved in certain issues that he should not, and it makes him look silly and unprofessional -for lack of a better word.-

#22
Trotsky

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Plain and the whole "Tea Party" is joke; they are loud, but they are not even organized enough to hold an effective protest, let alone run a presidential campaign. I honestly feel bad for her if she runs. -She is like those poor, pathetic people on talent shows who's whole family tells them they're great even when they suck.- Who are the republicans even looking at this time? is Trump running Independent or Republican? I heard Mitt Romney and Mike Hukabee are thinking about it again?


The tea party is an illusion of populism. The rallies in Wisconsin for unions' rights was larger than any tea party protest ever.

The 2010 election was based on speculation and punditry, it was decided by peoples' fears over what might happen. Future elections will be based on what is happening.

America will rise to fight austerity. It will hit home for everyone, one at a time. When college students can no longer get grants and fair loans, when welfare is cut, when people on disability are cut off from their income, when the school system is eviscerated and more students fail than ever before, when taxes are raised on families while corporations still pay ZERO. Also, let me be clear. Corporations do not actually pay "zero" because zero would imply they gain or lose nothing through taxes. Many corporations, especially oil companies, are GIVEN money by the government. So think of your personal tax rate as a positive number, and corporate tax rates as a negative number. And I have yet to hear in the budget battle any Republican say "let's get rid of the billions we give to oil companies."

This country will fight back. Last November, not many people saw how budget crisis exploitation will affect them personally. Soon enough, people will see, and people will fight.

#23
lastnightonGDA

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John, have you ever thought about going into politics?

#24
Trotsky

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John, have you ever thought about going into politics?


Sometimes I think so, sometimes I don't know if I'd be able to deal with the compromises, the ritual, the whole miasma it creates. If I were to go into politics, than this is the man I'd be one day.



EVERYONE - Listen to this man. Perhaps one of the only respectable Senators left.

#25
ParadoxAndPlaid

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The tea party is an illusion of populism. The rallies in Wisconsin for unions' rights was larger than any tea party protest ever.

Yeah it's comforting to know there are not as many of them as they make it out to be. As said, they are loud -and obnoxious- but they don't have the numbers. If I remember correctly at one of their rallies in last year in DC, There were actually more people counter-protesting the tea party than there were in support. I don't have a source to back that up though. I just recall seeing it on local news.

Off topic: If you don't want to involved in politics directly; you could totally write their addresses and speeches for them. I could see you doing that very well.

#26
greendaytone

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We'll set up our own party, the GDC party, and John can be our spokesman! :)

Viva La Revolution!

#27
Guest_☼_*

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If you went into politics, I would vote for you.
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#28
littlegirl-of-suburbia

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Oui Vive la révolution (she says while humming the "Marseillaise")
I think that Obama let people down because everyone was so full of hope....
he's no saint but not a sinner either
I just don't want that nut job from Alaska (aka Sarah Palin) to get elected



I've always found it strange how americans are so scared of communism (like national health OMG that's communist XD)
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#29
November's Storms

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The trouble Obama faced is that he was never ever going to live up to the massive hype that surrounded him. In comparison to other presidents and in realistic terms he has done very well. There have been complaints and compromises, but nothing disastrous.

I'd love to see the day where the two party state has vanished. Wishful thinking!

#30
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The trouble Obama faced is that he was never ever going to live up to the massive hype that surrounded him. In comparison to other presidents and in realistic terms he has done very well. There have been complaints and compromises, but nothing disastrous.

I'd love to see the day where the two party state has vanished. Wishful thinking!

I agree with this. It kind of annoys me when I see those stickers that quote Palin to some extent about, "How is that hopey -changey thing working for you?" Or "You can keep your hope, I will keep my guns".

Yeah, so there was a lot of hope for Obama to change and help America out.. but it's not like he went into his Presidency with a clean slate to work with. He had some major things to work through. I think he has done a decent job thus far.
  • The Snark and norcalgreendayfan like this



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